The Greek dilemma yet to break the ice fiscal cliff plug knife

The market is never a shortage of hot spots, like Greece. Greece opened the prelude to the European debt crisis, open up a new situation when every time the European debt, Greece total jump to market upsets reign of terror. Obama re-election for those who bet on falling dollar disappointed investors in the financial markets, Obama's charm lost to Greece suffered a heavy defeat. Greece's cash reserves have been exhausted, Congress summon the courage to strike in protest of the people through the austerity plan, "three carriages" of its aid loans but such "Laoniupoche delay is difficult to place. This week we will spotlight once again turned to Greece.

Although Greek parliamentary vote twice in the last week, successfully make the 2013 Budget approved, to avoid bankruptcy groundbreaking pave the way for the new amount of international aid, but international lenders are still reluctant to disseminate life-saving money in Greece. Prior to the forecast for Friday, Greece will run out of funds on hand, even if the Greek government really the time limit to make ends meet no later than the above estimates, the country is facing bankruptcy dilemma only problem overnight.

Overnight long-awaited Euro Group meeting fruitless, Greece still aid funds are not immediately available. Eurozone member governments on Monday on whether the country issuing more funds there are differences of opinion, even though the Greek government by the draconian 2013 budget, but market concerns still around, how to make Greece's debt levels to continue into the next 10 years to date is still a lack of consensus on this issue.

Days Eurogroup meeting Claude Juncker and other senior EU officials this made the pessimistic forecasts. This meeting is currently in full swing, but the results when baked longer important: Greece almost instant access to the new amount of bailout funds.

Recent recipient hopeless case, Greece will have to take self-help measures to prevent insolvency on Friday € 5 billion of old debt maturity default occurs. However, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs expert Ryan pointed out that Greece can still rely on the original short-term government bonds renewal degrees Off difficulties. At the same time, the IMF [the microblogging main Xilajiade [microblogging] pointed out that, in order to maintain the sustainability of Greece's debt, the parties in the period after still need more effort.

Despite Greece last week by the contents of the draconian 2013 budget bill, but the tripartite bodies need recognized Greek debt sustainability plan within the next decade. IMF main Xilajiade said budget initiatives need to further strengthen the budget bill is clearly necessary to reassess early action to ensure that the budget law to the actual carrying out of the next few days there will only be a small part of the early action will be to identify. " Lagarde, adding that the IMF does not agree Juncker's view, the latter said Greece to achieve a debt-GDP ratio goals need to be delayed for two years.

Morgan Stanley strategist HansRedeker headed Greek Parliament as expected by the Budget, but the EU is expected to postpone issued under the amount of aid loans for Greece, may be postponed to the end of the month in this case, We expect the euro / dollar will be pressure in the short term. "Greek ruling coalition in parliament on Sunday to secure enough votes to make the 2013 budget bill is passed, which is the key condition for Greece to receive international aid and avoid bankruptcy.

In fact, the more severe the problem is, the ruling party in the country has lost the people. According to the latest polls show that 59% of respondents Greek people think that the extreme left-wing alliance Syriza will win any future elections. Currently the largest party in the new Democratic Party support was only 26%. Syriza leader Qipulasi to oppose international assistance famous attempt to privatize state-owned enterprises as illegal, since his position as party leader since he has been called one of the top ten "most dangerous man in Europe". Greek general election held in June this year, the left-wing coalition is firmly opposed to Europe's aid.

Now, the Greek problem has become the focus of the market, Greece or life-saving money so far unresolved, In addition, the meeting of the Euro Group does not have results only on paper, the euro zone will face greater challenges in the future.

Fiscal cliff test market Obama to proceed after the election the first hurdle

After the end of the U.S. presidential election, the "financial cliff" issue has become the focus of the market. If Congress bicameral consensus can not be reached until 2013, the United States will face a $ 650 billion size of austerity, the results will undoubtedly make the downturn in the U.S. economy. However, while both houses of Congress were controlled by the two parties, but for the common interests of the two parties is bound to reach a consensus in a way, a significant impact on the deliberation process and the results will be commodity trends.

In order to avoid the United States reduced to next Greece, U.S. President Barack Obama will pull out all the stops to the U.S. economy pulled off a fiscal cliff. From November 13, Obama will be invited to participate in the House of Representatives leaders to the White House to discuss and resolve the financial cliff. The fiscal cliff coverage is both part of the population benefit from Young Bush tax cuts, and a lot of defense spending of the middle class, and the Department of Defense.

Still control the House of Representatives in the Republican Party after the election. House Speaker John? Boehner November 7, he is willing to re-election after Obama Ma Dacheng an agreement that the conditions are right circumstances "with tax increases reduce the huge national debt of the United States and incorporated into the U.S. financial track. While Boehner did not disclose the specific information on the tax increase, but this speech shows that Republicans are willing to negotiate with Obama. It is learned that received Obama invited House and Senate leaders, including Boehner, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The analysts believe that challenging Obama's second term, the ruling of the road will not be smooth, bore the brunt of the "fiscal cliff. Report released by the Congressional Budget Office said, "financial cliff" in the next year the U.S. economy back into recession, and the unemployment rate climbed to 9.1 percent by the end of next year, 2013, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States also may drop to 0.5%.

Approaching "fiscal cliff that is the most pressing economic challenges facing the United States after the election. On the one hand the tax cuts of the Bush administration during the end of the year is coming to an end. On the other hand, the Republican and Democratic parties are still unable to budget cuts agreed, automatic deficit reduction mechanism will start early next year. Superposition of two phase, to the United States more than the equivalent of $ 600 billion fiscal tightening effect, which could drag on the U.S. economy back into recession next year. On Friday, just win in Tuesday's general election, Obama in the White House issued a public speech, and he called on Congress to work together to put forward a plan to help the United States avoid the drop "financial cliff" doom.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said it will remain in office until a new government takes office next year. Reuters believes that consultations last year to help the U.S. government to avoid the debt ceiling, Geithner so impressed by a lot of Republicans, he will serve as an important negotiations aides to help Obama to negotiate with the Republican Party.

In addition, Obama will meet with labor leaders in today, and tomorrow will meet with a number of corporate executives, and to seek the support of the deficit reduction program. Obama also plans to initiate a campaign to win broader support for the proposed tax increases to the wealthy and other outside Washington, White House plans to expand the positive publicity of the deficit reduction measures.

From the current Congress will be about a month's time to discuss financial matters, we believe that the most likely short-term consensus will be reached in mid-December, in order to avoid a substantial reduction in expenditure, and reduce the panic in the market. Will usher in the debt ceiling by March next year, the Financial consensus may be reached after the debt ceiling, still means to stimulate. Prior to this, Bernanke are still in office, do not rule out a more accommodative monetary policy to support commodity prices, but the effect is limited support. December may be the peak of market panic and when merchandise sell into the atmosphere will be more concentrated.

Obama has successfully re-election, while Kaoyan his first hurdle is the "financial cliff" same "financial cliff" is also a test of the market, the future Obama will proceed to the U.S. economy, the dollar will also be affected.